Phylodynamics of SARSCoV-2 Lineages B.1.1.7, B.1.1.52 and B.1.617.2 in Nigeria suggests divergent Evolutionary trajectories

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ABSTRACT Background The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were characterized by high transmission rates and mortality, compounded by the emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including Variants of Concern (VOCs). This study investigates the phylodynamic and spatio-temporal trends of VOCs during the peak of the pandemic in Nigeria. Methods Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from three major VOCs circulating in Nigeria— B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron)—were analyzed using tools such as Nextclade, R Studio, and BEAST X The spatial distribution, evolutionary history, viral ancestral introductions, and geographic dispersal patterns were characterized. Results The Delta variant exhibited the widest geographic spread, detected in 14 states, while the Alpha variant was least distributed, identified in only eight states but present across most epidemiological weeks studied. Evolutionary rates varied slightly, with Alpha exhibiting the slowest rate (2.66 × 10 -4 substitutions/site/year). Viral population analyses showed distinct patterns: Omicron sustained elevated population growth over time, while Delta declined after initial expansion. The earliest Times to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were consistent with the earliest outbreaks of SARSCoV-2 globally. Geographic transmission analysis indicated a predominant coastal-to-inland spread for all variants, with Omicron showing the most diffuse dispersal, highlighting commercial routes as significant drivers of viral diffusion. Conclusion The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Nigeria was characterized by multiple variant introductions and a dominant coastal-to-inland spread, emphasizing that despite lockdown measures, commercial trade routes played a critical role in viral dissemination. These findings provide insights into pandemic control strategies and future outbreak preparedness.

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