The global burden of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis: trends and predictions

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BACKGROUND: Glomerulonephritis (GN), one of the primary causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is gaining recognition as a major public health issue. This research sought to evaluate the worldwide impact of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) between 1990 and 2021 and to forecast trends up to 2036, leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. METHODS: The analysis of GN-CKD from 1990 to 2021 utilized GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of GN-CKD, and the changing trends of these indicators were statistically analyzed. To assess the practical difference between each country/region and the frontier, we utilized the 2021 DALYs and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). To assist healthcare institutions in formulating more effective public health policies, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate until 2036 were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling techniques. RESULTS: The global prevalence rate of GN-CKD, as indicated by the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), grew 10.81% between 1990 and 2021, with a marginal average annual change of 0.04 (AAPC0.04, 0.03-0.05). Similarly, there was an increase of 15.84% in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for GN-CKD during this period, with an average annual trend of 0.50 (AAPC0.50, 0.41-0.59). Moreover, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASYR) for GN-CKD observed an upward trend of 8.60% from 1990 to 2021, with a modest average annual change of 0.27 (AAPC0.27, 0.17-0.37). Our findings indicate that the impact of GN-CKD differs across gender, geographic areas, and socioeconomic statuses. Elevated fasting plasma glucose levels, high body-mass index (BMI), and elevated systolic blood pressure were the main contributors to deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Fortunately, the burden of GN-CKD is expected to diminish by 2036. CONCLUSIONS: The worldwide impact of GN-CKD has risen, with variations observed between genders and across SDI regions. Encouraging trends point toward a potential reduction in GN-CKD-related burden in the future.

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