Development and external validation of prediction models for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in people with intellectual disability
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Le résumé fourni par la source
People with intellectual disability (ID) have a relatively high incidence of fractures, so current risk prediction models are not appropriate. A new prediction model for people with ID showed good calibration and discrimination in external validation. This is the first such prediction model developed for people with ID. PURPOSE: Compared with the general population, people with intellectual disabilities (ID) have higher incidences of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF), and they develop osteoporosis at a younger age. The rate of HF in those aged 50 years and over is two times higher than that in women without ID and four times higher than that in men without ID. It is essential to identify people with ID who are at risk of such fractures so that a targeted fracture prevention strategy can be designed. However, current fracture prediction models are derived from the general population and may underestimate risk in the ID population. METHODS: Prediction models (IDFracture) for the 10-year risk of HF and MOF were developed and validated in populations of people with ID aged 30-79 years. Models were developed in the CPRD GOLD database and temporally validated in the Aurum database. The predictors included those in current fracture prediction models and ID-specific predictors such as Down syndrome. All the predictors were included in the Cox regression models. Bootstrapping was used to adjust for overfitting. RESULTS: The development cohort included 38,665 people with IDs, 1045 with MOFs and 360 with HFs within 10 years. The external validation cohort included 76,385 people, 2420 MOFs and 1001 HFs. Discrimination, as judged by the C statistic, was good: MOF 0.775 and HF 0.839. The calibration was also good but tended to overpredict at the highest predicted risks. CONCLUSION: IDFracture has potential as a screening tool in clinical practice to identify people with ID who are at increased risk of MOF and HF.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Development and external validation of prediction models for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in people with intellectual disability
- Date Crossref
- 01/04/2026
- Éditeur
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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University of Birmingham pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust pays non établi dans la noticeÉtablissement de santé
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Dimensions UK pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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School of Health Sciences Department of Applied Health Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences — University of Oxford, NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre — University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust et NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, avec 4 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.