Photosynthesis‐driven yield gains in global wheat breeding trials

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Abstract Increasing wheat yields is critical to meet the demands of a growing population and ensure socioeconomic stability. Rising photosynthesis is being proposed as a promising avenue to increase wheat yields, but evidence for this is conflicting across studies. To test the viability of this hypothesis, here we report a systematic and quantitative literature review examining the association between historic yield increases due to breeding that occurred over 129 years (1890–2019) across the globe and light‐saturated photosynthesis ( A sat ) for 273 wheat commercial varieties released to farmers in five continents. A positive and highly significant relationship between trial‐corrected grain yield and cultivars’ year of release (YOR) was found globally ( R 2 = 0.56), with an annual rate of yield increase of 0.84%. Trial‐corrected seed‐fill A sat increased globally at a pace of 0.58% year −1 , and this association was the strongest among the examined four phenological stages. Detrended (from YOR), trial‐corrected grain yield and A sat were found to be correlated, with this association being significant only during seed‐fill. The analysis also suggests that historical yield gains may also have been achieved by an increase in water uptake during seed‐fill, but it points to the need for more standardized protocols for measuring gas exchange in such vintage/era studies. Overall, these insights indicate that breeding for higher wheat yields was accompanied by physiological alterations to improve A sat and, possibly, increase water use during the critical seed‐fill period, two traits that are also likely to enhance wheat climate resilience.

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