Consistent phenological advancement of Common Toad migration in response to climate change in Flanders, Belgium

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Abstract Many species use temperature as a cue to time certain life events. Such phenological events can be particularly sensitive to climate change. In amphibians, seasonal migration events between ponds and winter habitats are crucial to ensure reproduction. Therefore, shifts in phenological events – called phenological shifts – can significantly affect the persistence of amphibian populations, especially when induced by climate change. We used citizen science data collected during the spring migration of the Common Toad (Bufo bufo) from 1981 until 2020 to: (i) estimate the phenological shift, (ii) determine consistency of these changes within the studied region, and (iii) relate its temporal variation with changes in temperature. The results revealed an advancement in the peak migration of 3.1 days per decade. This shift was consistent across all populations in Flanders, indicating a regional effect that is most likely due to climate change. This reasoning is supported by the temperature-based model, which indicates that earlier migration occurs in warmer years. Nonetheless, significant local variations persist in the timing of spring migration. Our results highlight the importance of studying in detail the timing of spring migration and its variability, as it may elucidate mechanisms underlying trends in population decline at both national and international scales.

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