Driving factors of CO2 emissions in southeast China: Comparative study of long-term trends, short-term fluctuations, and spatial variations

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This study explores the factors driving CO2 emissions related to energy use in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2019, with an emphasis on long-term trends, short-term fluctuations, and spatial disparities. Utilizing annual data on CO2 emissions and various influencing factors from multiple cities within Fujian Province, we examine the factors driving long-term changes in CO2 emissions. To analyze short-term emission trajectories, we employ a temporal decomposition model, while spatial decomposition techniques are used to assess the variability in emission drivers across 9 prefecture-level cities over different years. Our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and urbanization over the 20-year study period. Furthermore, short-term fluctuations indicate a gradual reduction in the impact of urbanization on the increase in CO2 emissions within the industrial, transportation, and household sectors in Fujian Province. Additionally, economic development, measured as per capita gross domestic product, is shown to significantly influence CO2 emissions. Efforts to reduce energy intensity, which refers to the amount of energy consumed per unit of economic output, in both the industrial and household sectors are identified as potential strategies for emission reduction. The variability in CO2 emissions among cities is primarily attributed to differences in energy intensity and population sizes. These insights are critical for formulating policies aimed at promoting low-carbon development, reducing carbon emissions, and enhancing sustainability throughout Fujian Province.

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