The energy–population dividend: evidence from energy-specific population projections
Rattachement africain : at, de, fr. Niveau de preuve : code pays fourni par la source.
Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract In a climate-constrained world, understanding the energy required to achieve universal access to modern energy is critical. This requires making assumptions on future population trajectories. Although access to modern energy can affect population dynamics, this feedback has not yet been accounted for in demographic models. Access to modern energy leads to fertility declines as it reduces child mortality, improves health, increases women’s access to information, education and employment. In this paper we present a demographic model that endogenizes the effect of increased access to modern energy on population dynamics and estimates the size of this effect on total final energy use by households for the case of Zambia. To do so, we built a microsimulation model to project future population size and composition, accounting for how fertility depends on access to modern energy and education. We used these population projections to then estimate household energy demand of the Zambian population until 2070, under different scenarios. We found that in 2070, while electricity consumption is higher in a universal access scenario compared to a baseline scenario, total energy demand is 29% lower, partly due to a strong decline in the use of inefficient traditional cooking fuels. We also found that reduced population growth due to universal energy access contributes to lowering the energy demand by 56% by 2050, compared to a more limited expansion in energy access, and this contribution increases over time. Although the challenge of achieving universal access to modern energy seems daunting, our results suggest that this could have co-benefits with achieving climate goals. Our study also reveals that accounting for the energy–population dividend in energy models will scale down the currently assumed energy needs to ensure a decent life for all.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- The energy–population dividend: evidence from energy-specific population projections
- Date Crossref
- 20/12/2024
- Éditeur
- IOP Publishing
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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Vienna Institute of Demography pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Social Metabolism and Impacts pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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National Institute for Demographic Studies pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Humboldt University Berlin Department of Cultural History and Theory and Department of Social Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (University of Vienna pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Asian Demographic Research Institute of the Shanghai University pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University of Vienna) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography et Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, avec 6 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.