Charting the course of invasion: Ensemble species distribution models predict the range expansion of a newly invasive aphid pest Metopolophium festucae cerealium in North America

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Invasive species, including insect pests, pose significant threats globally. Ongoing global environmental changes may exacerbate the threats, by potentially favoring range expansion of invasive pests, altering native ecosystems, and damaging valuable crops. To reduce the spread and impact of invasive pests, monitoring and identification of their suitable habitats in the context of global environmental change (e.g., ongoing changes in land use and climate) is essential. This study examines the current and future potential habitat suitability of a newly invasive aphid, Metopolophium festucae cerealium , in North America, focusing on its potential expansion into wheat growing regions in North America. Using occurrence data collected during a decade of surveying from ∼450 sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) where the aphid has invaded, with the help of an ensemble modeling framework, we predicted the habitat suitability for M. f. cerealium for North America under various climate scenarios and land use conditions. The results indicate a high likelihood of further eastward and southward expansion from the PNW, particularly in wheat and cereal crop-producing regions, posing a threat to crop production. The key environmental drivers include cropland percentage, temperature, and precipitation, suggesting potential impacts of future environmental change. The study underscores the importance of considering not only climatic factors but also host plant presence and agricultural practices in pest management strategies. • Identifying potential suitable habitats for invasive pests is crucial. • We examined current and future habitat suitability of invasive M. f. cerealium in North America. • High likelihood of invasive pest expanding from Pacific Northwest, USA to other regions. • Cropland percentage, temperature, and precipitation are identified as key drivers.

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