Sensitivity to climate change is widespread across zoonotic diseases

Résumé fourni par la source

Abstract Climate change is expected to exacerbate infectious diseases, yet the climate sensitivity of zoonotic diseases (driven by spillover from animal reservoirs) is markedly understudied compared to vector-borne and water-borne infections. To address this gap, we conducted a global systematic review and quantitative synthesis to identify relationships between climatic indicators (temperature, precipitation, humidity) and zoonotic disease risk metrics worldwide. We identified 185 studies from 55 countries, describing 547 measures across 51 diseases, with most studies testing linear (n=166) rather than nonlinear (n=23) relationships. We found evidence of climate sensitivity across diverse zoonotic diseases (significant non-zero relationships in 64.3% of temperature effects, 49.8% of precipitation effects, and 48.9% of humidity effects), but with broad variation in direction and strength. Positive effects of temperature and rainfall on disease risk were more common than negative effects (39.1% vs. 25.2% and 30.5% vs. 19.2% of all records, respectively). These studies were predominantly located in areas expected to have substantial increases in annual mean temperature (>1.5°C in 93% of studies) and rainfall (>25 mm in 46% of studies) by 2041–2070. Notably, the most consistent relationship was between temperature and vector-borne zoonoses (50% of Positive effects, mean Hedge’s g = 0.31). Overall, our analyses provide evidence that climate sensitivity is common across zoonoses, likely leading to substantial yet complex effects of future climate change on zoonotic burden. Finally, we highlight the need for future studies to use biologically appropriate models, rigorous space-time controls, consider causal perspectives and address taxonomic and geographic biases to allow a robust consensus of climate-risk relationships to emerge. Significance statement Understanding how climate change affects zoonotic diseases—those transmitted from animals to humans—is crucial for public health planning yet remains underexplored. Our global analysis of 185 studies covering 51 zoonotic diseases reveals widespread climate sensitivity among these diseases. Climatic factors, particularly temperature, are often linked to increased disease risk, especially for vector-borne diseases transmitted by arthropods. With many regions projected to experience significant warming, climate change may exacerbate zoonotic disease burden. However, few studies have considered nonlinear effects, and the variation in responses both within and across diseases indicates complex dynamics that require biologically informed research methods. These findings underscore the urgent need for improved research approaches to better predict and manage future disease risks in a changing climate.

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