In Search of the Rational Voter in the 2020 Presidential Election: Understanding the Impact of Voter Costs and Benefits on Turnout

Le résumé fourni par la source

The ability to vote is one of the most valuable rights and privileges afforded by the Constitution of the United States to its citizens. For many, voting is not just a civic duty; it is also a choice, e.g., a way to have a voice regarding issues that affect them and that they care about. Even before the inception of restrictive voter identification laws, civil and voting rights groups have expressed concerns over the impact some laws may have on specific sections of the electorate and consequently, how they influence voter turnout. Indeed, the research on voter participation or suppression is very active. Voting is crucial to our democracy, and any changes to it may affect the efficiency of the democratic process. The bigger question is whether voters behave rationally by engaging in a cost-benefit calculus in deciding whether or not to vote. Using data science, this paper will examine the probability of voting and investigate its impact via cost and benefit among other variables using the 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) dataset. In addition, the study will also assess the impact voter perceptions of “a sense of duty” on voter turnout. Empirical work provides additional evidence that feelings of civic duty truly do motivate voter turnout (Galais et al. 2016). Anthony Downs (1957), in his text “An Economic Theory of Democracy,” outlined a theoretical framework from an economic-based approach for voting behavior. Commonly known as the rational choice theory, he discussed similarities of the functions between consumers and voters and between business and political parties while maximizing a utility function. The goal of corporations is to improve their financial gain significantly. The utility for voting shows a lot more complexity and heterogeneity. One can posit that voters endeavor to increase the utility of their vote by maximizing electoral benefits acquired from political propositions (Antunes 2010, p. 157). Such actions have the potential to foster apathy toward political participation, including voting. Using the latest statistical analyses methods, we identify and understand the factors that benefited and hindered voting in the ANES 2020 data and the impact of voter benefits and costs on turnout.

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