Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change

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Introduction: Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China. Methods: We selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R. Results: The ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions. Discussion: Our study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.

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