Real-World Analysis of the Correlation between Overall Survival and Progression-Free Survival in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: Results of NAPOLEON-1 and 2 Studies

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INTRODUCTION: Fluorouracil, leucovorin, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) improve overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with pancreatic cancer, compared with gemcitabine (GEM). However, whether PFS is a surrogate marker of OS in pancreatic cancer chemotherapy focusing on FOLFIRINOX or GEM plus nab-paclitaxel remains unknown. We aimed to verify whether PFS can be a surrogate marker of OS in prognosis prediction. METHODS: This was an integrated analysis of the NAPOLEON study and retrospective cohort of the NAPOLEON-2 study - a multicenter observational study conducted in Japan, using real-world data. The primary and secondary endpoints were OS and PFS, respectively. The correlation between OS and PFS in first- and second-line treatments was assessed using Method of Moments estimation. An analysis was performed in patients with confirmed OS at the end of follow-up. The NAPOLEON-2 cohort included only patients who received 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and nanoliposomal irinotecan (NFF) as second-line treatment. RESULTS: Among 479 patients, the correlation between PFS and OS from first- and second-line chemotherapies was calculated in 310 and 225 patients, respectively. The R-squared values for the correlation between PFS and OS from first- and second-line chemotherapies were 0.74 and 0.76, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in first-line treatment between the FOLFIRINOX and GEM plus nab-paclitaxel groups (p = 0.92). Therefore, the FOLFIRINOX group may not have shown a stronger correlation than the NFF group. CONCLUSION: PFS can be a surrogate marker of OS in first- and second-line therapies. Appropriate prognostic estimation might contribute to proper treatment selection.

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