Variable-RBE-induced NTCP predictions for various side-effects following proton therapy for brain tumors – Identification of high-risk patients and risk mitigation

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Background and purpose Disregarding the increase of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) may raise the risk of acute and late adverse events after proton beam therapy (PBT). This study aims to explore the relationship between variable RBE (above 1.1)-induced normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) and patient-specific factors, identify patients at high risk of RBE-induced NTCP increase, and assess risk mitigation by incorporating RBE variability into treatment planning. Materials and methods We retrospectively analyzed 105 primary brain tumor patients treated with PBT (RBE = 1.1). We calculated differences in estimated NTCP (ΔNTCP) using a variable RBE-weighted dose (D RBE , Wedenberg model) and a constant RBE-weighted dose (D RBE=1.1 ), across 16 NTCP models. These differences were correlated with patient-specific characteristics. Based on ΔNTCP, patients were classified as high risk (32 %) or low risk (68 %) for adverse events due to RBE-induced NTCP. This classification was compared with alternative classifications based on (a) relevant patient-specific characteristics, (b) D RBE=1.1 , and (c) the difference between D RBE and D RBE=1.1 (ΔD), assessing the balanced accuracy. The potential to reduce RBE-induced NTCP through track-end and linear energy transfer (LET) optimization was evaluated in six example patients. Results Using a variable RBE instead of a constant one resulted in NTCP increases (up to 32 percentage points). Variable-RBE-induced NTCP increases were strongly negatively correlated with the distance between the clinical target volume (CTV) and the organ at risk (OAR) for most side-effects, and positively correlated with CTV volume for certain side-effects. High increases were associated with (a) specific patient factors, particularly the proximity of the CTV to OARs, (b) D RBE=1.1 , and (c) ΔD, with a balanced accuracy of 0.88, 0.94, and 0.86, respectively. Optimization of track-ends and LET considerably reduced NTCP values, achieving a mean reduction of 31 % for optimized OARs. Conclusion The risk of variable-RBE-induced NTCP strongly depends on patient-specific factors and the considered side-effect. A small distance between the tumor and OARs notably increases the risk. Integrating biologically-guided objectives into treatment planning can effectively mitigate the risk.

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