Population exposure to outdoor NO 2 , black carbon, particle mass, and number concentrations over Paris with multi-scale modelling down to the street scale

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Abstract. This study focuses on mapping the concentrations of pollutants of health interest (NO2, black carbon (BC), PM2.5, number of particles (PN)) down to the street scale to represent as accurately as possible the population exposure. Simulations are performed over the Greater Paris area with the WRF-CHIMERE/MUNICH/SSH-aerosol chain, using either the top-down inventory EMEP or the bottom-up inventory Airparif with correction of the traffic flow. The concentrations of the pollutants are higher in streets than in the regional-scale urban background, due to the strong influence of road-traffic emissions locally. Model-to-data comparisons were performed at urban background and traffic stations, and evaluated using two performance criteria from the literature. For BC, harmonized equivalent BC (eBC) concentrations were estimated from concomitant mea-surements of eBC and elemental carbon. Using the bottom-up inventory with corrected road-traffic flow, the strictest criteria are met for NO2, eBC, PM2.5, and PN. Using the EMEP top-down inventory, the strictest criteria are also met for NO2, eBC and PM2.5, but errors tend to be larger than with the bottom-up inventory for NO2, eBC and PN. Using the top-down inventory, the concentrations tend to be lower along the streets than those simulated using the bottom-up inventory, especially for NO2 con-centrations, resulting in less urban heterogeneities. The impact of the size-distribution of non-exhaust emissions was analyzed at both regional and local scales, and it is higher in heavy-traffic streets. To assess exposure, a french database detailing the number of inhabitants in each building was used. The population-weighted concentration (PWC) was calculated by weighting populations by the outdoor concentrations to which they are exposed at the precise location of their home. An exposure scaling factor (ESF) was determined for each pollutant to estimate the ratio needed to correct urban background concentrations in order to assess exposure. The average ESF in Paris and Paris Ring Road is higher than 1 for NO2, eBC, PM2.5, PN, because the concentrations simulated at the local scale in streets are higher than those modelled at the regional scale. It indicates that the Parisian population exposure is under-estimated using regional-scale concentrations. Although this underestimation is low for PM2.5, with an ESF of 1.04, it is very high for NO2 (1.26), eBC (between 1.22 and 1.24), and PN (1.12). This shows that urban heterogeneities are important to be considered in order to represent the population exposure to NO2, eBC, and PN, but less so for PM2.5.

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