Predictive factors for pneumonia and anastomotic leak after transthoracic esophagectomy for cancer and failure to rescue analysis on 1355 patients

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Background: Pneumonia (PN) and anastomotic leak (AL) represent the most feared complications after transthoracic esophagectomy for cancer, the former more commonly observed after open and the latter after minimally-invasive (MI) procedures. Studies comparing these two complications with focus on predictive risk factors and procedure-related failure-to-rescue (FTR) are sparse. Aim of the study was to explore such aspects with a large multicentric dataset. Methods: All patients who underwent an Ivor Lewis transthoracic esophagectomy for cancer between 2008 and 2022 in four tertiary centers were queried. Predictive risk factors for pneumonia, anastomotic leak and in-hospital mortality were analyzed with univariable models. FTR was defined as in-hospital death following a major complication. Patients were then classified and compared according to the type of operation [open, hybrid-laparoscopic, hybrid-robotic, standard minimally-invasive (MIE) or robotic minimally-invasive (RAMIE)]. Pneumonia and anastomotic leak associated FTR was calculated and compared across the groups. Machine-learning models (neuronal nets, support vector machines and random forests classifier) were applied to predict complications and FTR. Results: In total, 1,355 patients were included. Significant (p<0.05) predictors for PN (n=211, 15.6%) were ASA=4, preexisting cardiac and pulmonary conditions, conversion (any type), neoadjuvant therapy and age. Those for AL (n=160, 11.8%) were preexisting cardiac condition, conversion (any type) and operation time. Overall FTR-rate was 3.6%. Age>65y, preexisting cardiac and pulmonary condition, AL, PN, postoperative bleeding, sepsis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia and need for blood transfusion were the risk factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. PN- and AL- associated FTR rates did not significantly differ among the operation types (p>0.99 and 0.74 respectively). Machine-learning models were unable to predict complications or FTR properly. Conclusions: Our study showed that there is a larger number of factors associated with pneumonia rather than anastomotic leak, probably making the prevention of this complication more challenging to achieve. However, pneumonia- and leak-associated FTR-rates did not significantly differ among the groups, demonstrating that the implementation of minimally-invasive procedures can be safely carried out, if experience is provided. Publication History Article published online: 26 September 2024 © 2024. Thieme. All rights reserved. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Rüdigerstraße 14, 70469 Stuttgart, Germany

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