Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies

Le résumé fourni par la source

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV worldwide. This systematic review summarizes the results of mathematical modeling studies that evaluated prospects of HIV elimination among MSM by geographical setting, type of intervention(s), elimination definition, and model characteristics. We searched Embase and PubMed for studies published between July 1, 2016 and September 1, 2025 which used a dynamic mathematical model to assess the impact of interventions on HIV transmission among MSM. Data were extracted on study population, interventions, elimination definitions, model type, model structure, and calibration. Studies were critically appraised for model comprehensiveness in addressing elimination. 135 of the 4,595 records were included. MSM populations in six of the eight Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS regions were modeled, with 47% of models considering MSM in the USA. Agent-based models (ABMs) were as common as compartmental models overall, with ABMs more frequently used in Western and Central Europe and North America (WCENA), while compartmental models predominated elsewhere. Of the 135 included studies, 41 defined elimination, and they defined it as follows: (i) reduction in HIV incidence/prevalence, or (ii) threshold of HIV incidence/prevalence, or (iii) reproduction number below one. Elimination was achieved in 42 out of 51 modeled scenarios, of which 32 (82.05%) were in WCENA, but the authors of only 28 of these 42 scenarios discussed the real-world elimination feasibility with 10 of these scenarios considered elimination feasible by the original authors. There was also a strong regional divide in the elimination scenarios considered feasible, with 6 (60.00%) in Asia and the Pacific (AP) and 4 (40.00%) in WCENA. Models in which elimination was achieved commonly used combinations of interventions. Modeling efforts to understand HIV elimination prospects outside WCENA should be intensified, and models assessing HIV elimination prospects should account for HIV acquisition outside of the local context. To enhance study comparability and ensure that models contribute effectively to public health policy, an elimination definition based on an HIV incidence threshold would be the most valuable. By identifying gaps in current studies, we recommend novel research directions for modeling to inform a coordinated global response for HIV elimination among MSM.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.