The Pre-ECPR Score: Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prediction Model for Favorable Neurological Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

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Objectives Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) can save patients with refractory cardiac arrest; however, according to recent meta-analyses, only 20% of patients achieve favorable outcomes (Modified Rankin Scale 0-3). We aimed to develop and validate an ECPR prediction model to improve patient selection. Design Prognostic model development and internal validation study. Setting Single-center study. Participants All 120 normothermic ECPR patients treated at Sahlgrenska University Hospital between January 2010 and October 2021. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the PRognostic Evaluation of ECPR (Pre-ECPR) score. Model performance was assessed through the area under curve (AUC) and compared with the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) "Example of selection criteria for ECPR" for 1-year survival with favorable outcomes. The positive predictive value (PPV) was calculated. Favorable outcomes occurred in 27.5% of the patients. The Pre-ECPR score, incorporating age, no-flow/initial rhythm (a composite variable), total cardiac arrest time, signs of life, pupil dilation, regional cerebral oxygen saturation, arterial pH, and end-tidal CO 2 , demonstrated an AUC of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.93). In internal cross-validation, the AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.67-0.88) significantly outperformed the ELSO criteria AUC of 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.72, p=0.012). Pre-ECPR score probabilities >6.4% showed 100% sensitivity and a PPV of 40.5% for favorable outcomes. Conclusions The Pre-ECPR score combines multiple weighted predictors to provide a single balanced probability of favorable outcomes in ECPR patient selection. In cross-validation, it demonstrated significantly more favorable discriminatory performance than that of the ELSO criteria.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.