Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Abstract Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Warbler), Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), and Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how and where these species’ distributions shift in response to environmental drivers is critical to inform conservation planning in the Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 to 2021) and projected future (2050) suitable climatic and land use/land cover conditions as components of stationary nonbreeding distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used in an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) to predict distributions in response to varying climatic and land use/land cover conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts in suitable conditions, and limited shifts in latitude and longitude will occur in 3 of 4 species. Cardellina canadensis and S. cerulea are expected to experience a moderate distribution contraction (7% to 29% and 19% to 43%, respectively), primarily in response to expected temperature changes. The V. chrysoptera distribution was modeled by sex, and females and males were projected to experience a major distribution contraction (56% to 79% loss in suitable conditions for females, 46% to 65% for males), accompanied by shifts in peak densities to higher elevations with minimal changes in the upper elevation limit. Expected changes in precipitation had the greatest effect on V. chrysoptera. Hylocichla mustelina experienced the smallest distribution change, consistent with the species’ flexibility in habitat selection and broader elevational range. We recommend defining priority areas for conservation as those where suitable conditions are expected to remain or arise in the next 25 years. For V. chrysoptera in particular, it is urgent to ensure that mid-elevation forests in Costa Rica and Honduras are adequately managed and protected.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios
- Date Crossref
- 23/07/2024
- Éditeur
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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University of Maine Department of Wildlife pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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SELVA pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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Environment and Climate Change Canada pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Oregon State University Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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The Nature Conservancy pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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Indiana University of Pennsylvania Department of Biology pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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American Bird Conservancy pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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Bird Conservancy of the Rockies pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisation à but non lucratif
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University of British Columbia Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Forest Resources pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Canadian Wildlife Service pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Wildlife Research Division pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
Department of Wildlife — University of Maine, SELVA et Environment and Climate Change Canada, avec 9 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.