2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability

Résumé fourni par la source

2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss of aerosol induced cooling. Here we use a recent Green’s function-based method to quantify the influence of sea surface temperature patterns on the 2023 global temperature anomaly, and compare them to previous record warm years. We show that the strong deviation from recent warming trends is consistent with previously observed sea surface temperature influences, and regional forcing. This indicates that internal variability was a strong contributor to the exceptional 2023 temperature evolution, in combination with steady anthropogenic global warming. 2023 temperatures fall in line with historical trends, with warm anomalies typical of El Niño, indicating dominance of sea surface temperature variability and regional forcing, according to an analysis for isolating the 2023 global surface contribution from various ocean basins.

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