MaxEnt ecological niche models for Alternathera philoxeroides, Amynothrips andersoni, and Agasicles hygrophila

Résumé fourni par la source

Alternanthera philoxeroides is an aquatic invasive weed from South America with a long history of biological control. The well-studied Agasicles hygrophila (alligatorweed flea beetle) successfully controls Al. philoxeroides in some parts of its invaded range, but Ag. hygrophila is unsuitable in other areas due to its intolerance to cold temperatures. An understudied biological control agent, Amynothrips andersoni (alligatorweed thrips) has shown greater tolerance to cold temperatures, but no research has been conducted to determine its ecological niche with respect to Al. philoxeroides. Additionally, climate change is predicted to shift the ecological niches of species globally, and these changes must be accounted for in biogeographic research. The aim of this study is to predict the environmental niches of Am. andersoni and Ag. hygrophila and their overlap with that of Al. philoxeroides in the American continents under current and future climate scenarios. To address this objective, niche models were conducted in MaxEnt for all three species using environmental variables from the current climate and under two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the year 2040. The niche overlap between the two biological control agents and the host were estimated for all three scenarios. The ecological niche of Al. philoxeroides is predicted to expand in the invaded range under both future climate scenarios. Additionally, Am. andersoni had a greater niche overlap with Al. philoxeroides than did Ag. hygrophila under all three scenarios, suggesting it is currently more widely suitable for Al. philoxeroidesbiological control and should continue to be in 2040.

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