Projections of dentistry workforce up to 2040 in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

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Background Planning of the dental workforce, especially the number of dentists, requires the data of exact dental workloads. This study aims to project the dental workforce from 2020 to 2040, based on a survey of the actual workload of 4060 dentists in 2022. Methods In 2022, a database of 4060 current dentists obtained from the archive of Kurdistan Dental Association, Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Descriptive analysis of workforce projection and densities per 100,000 population from 2020 to 2040 was performed, and perceived workforce challenges/possible solutions were calculated. Linear regression modeling based on the Human Development Index (HDI), age of graduate dentists, and dental college data was used to predict dentist density. Results The dentist-to-population ratio (dentists per 100,000 people) was 63.22 in 2022. The supply of dentists was 800 per year from 8 dentistry colleges from 2027 to 2040, and is expected to increase for the next 15 years. Because of lower (steady) population growth estimates for KRI and higher numbers of graduates from the dentistry colleges, it is estimated that the dentist-to-population ratio will increase to 1065 by the year 2040. Conclusion An oversupply of dentists and steady population growth will result in a surplus of dentists. This research highlights the fact that there is an urgent need for an organized national human resource planning system to control the supply and demand for dental manpower, to ensure a uniform distribution of manpower and provide future directions to policy makers.

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