Prediction of cancer incidence and prevalence in Iceland up to the year 2040

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INTRODUCTION: A large increase in new cancer cases is predicted worldwide, due to population growth, ageing and increased cancer risk. The age distribution of the Icelandic population is different from the other Nordic countries. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of new cancer cases in Iceland and other Nordic countries, and cancer survivors in Iceland, up to the year 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Information on cancer diagnoses was retrieved from The Icelandic Cancer Registry and information on population projections from Statistics Iceland. Well known methods for population projection were used to predict the number of new cancer cases in 2040, but adjusted to consider Icelandic circumstances. It is also based on more recent data than is accessible elsewhere. Three different methods were used to estimate the number of survivors in 2040 and are presented here for the first time. RESULTS: In 2040 the predicted yearly average number of new cancer cases in Iceland will be up to 2,903 [95% CI 2.841-2.956], a 57% increase compared with 2022. The increase is higher in Iceland than in other Nordic countries (Norway 41%, Sweden 24%, Denmark 23%, Finland 21%). In 2022, the number of cancer survivors was around 17,500 and is predicted to be between 24,500 and 31,000 in 2040. CONCLUSION: The main reason for the predicted increase of cancer cases and survivors is population trends, especially the ageing of the population. This expected increase in the number of cancer patients and improved survival will increase the demand for healthcare.

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