An Autoregulatory Model of Forest Insect Population Dynamics and Forest Stand Damage Dynamics in Different Habitats: An Example of Lymantria dispar L.
Rattachement africain : ru, fr, jp. Niveau de preuve : code pays fourni par la source.
Le résumé fourni par la source
This paper addresses the problem of constructing a mathematical model of population density dynamics and the dynamics of forest areas damaged by spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) outbreaks in the United States, Europe, Russia, and Japan. The key variable of the model is either the pest population density or the area of forests damaged by spongy moths during a season. This variable can be considered proportional to the total current pest abundance in the study area. For the purposes of modeling, data from a number of different authors was used (see bibliography), as well as data from surveys conducted at the egg or caterpillar stage. The complexity of modeling the dynamics of L. dispar abundance is largely due to the fact that, when studying the dynamics of spongy moth population density, the values of external factors such as parasites, predators, and the amount of available food are often unknown. A simple model was proposed using only two types of data: population density and monthly weather characteristics. Our analysis demonstrated that, even in the absence of knowledge regarding the characteristics of ecosystem components interacting with the spongy moth population (parasites, predators, and the state of forage trees), it is possible to introduce models that characterize the regulatory processes in the population in terms of (i) the presence of negative and positive feedbacks in the system and (ii) the influence of external weather factors. The system under investigation was described as an autoregressive system, whereby the current state of the population is dependent on its state in previous years. The order of autoregression in the system was estimated using the order of the maximum significant partial autocorrelation function. It was found that the regulation of spongy moth population density was characterized by the presence of two feedback loops: positive feedback between the current population density and the population density in the previous season and negative feedback between the current population density and the population density two years ago. To evaluate the model, its stability margin was calculated and found to be directly proportional to the positive feedback coefficient and inversely proportional to the negative feedback coefficient. The model was demonstrated to explain up to 90% of the observed variance of real data. Although the model coefficients for different local populations (North America, Europe, and Asia) differ, the general form of the equation describing both direct data on population densities and indirect data on pest dynamics characterized by areas of stand damage is consistent. Consequently, the form of the ADL model is general, irrespective of the location of the local population.
Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.
Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- An Autoregulatory Model of Forest Insect Population Dynamics and Forest Stand Damage Dynamics in Different Habitats: An Example of Lymantria dispar L.
- Date Crossref
- 25/06/2024
- Éditeur
- MDPI AG
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Sukachev Institute of Forest pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Institute of Water Problems pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Siberian Federal University Department of Ecology and Nature Management pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Ministère de l'Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology Department of Agriculture pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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National Research Tomsk State University Biological Institute pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Institute of Water and Ecological Problems pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Institute Botanical Garden pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center et Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, avec 9 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.