Rapid Finite-Fault Models for the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Earthquake Sequence

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Abstract In the immediate aftermath of devastating earthquakes such as in the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence in southcentral Türkiye, key stakeholders and the public demand timely and accurate earthquake information. Especially for large events, finite-fault models provide important insights into the rupture process and enable interpretation of the observed ground shaking, which can improve situational awareness and facilitate rapid assessment of future hazards. Using strong-motion waveforms recorded during the Kahramanmaraş sequence, we simulate a real-time playback and calculate how a finite-source model computed with the Finite-fault rupture Detector (FinDer) algorithm would evolve for the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık, Mw 7.6 Elbistan, and Mw 6.4 Yayladağı earthquakes. Using template matching FinDer compares observed and predicted ground-motion acceleration amplitudes to determine the orientation and spatial extent of fault rupture. We test both generic crustal and fault-specific templates from ground-motion models and rupture geometries of the east Anatolian and Çardak–Sürgü faults. In the second step, we estimate the seismic slip along the source models from the backprojection of the seismic displacement amplitudes. The algorithms achieve excellent performance for all three earthquakes, and the final source models and slip profiles available within tens of seconds of the rupture nucleation match well with models computed days to weeks after the events occurred. The temporal evolution of the source models for the Pazarcık and Elbistan earthquakes suggests that FinDer can provide insight into the rupture kinematics of large earthquakes. Cascading instrument failures as well as power and data telemetry interruptions during the Pazarcık earthquake led to an early termination of signals at a significant number of near-source stations. We show that FinDer is robust enough to cope with this type of degradation in network performance that can occur in large earthquakes, in general.

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