Application of the TBATS Model for Analyzing Demand in Public Events

Le résumé fourni par la source

Recently, local governments have been actively organizing various event-based projects with the aim of strengthening community ties and revitalizing local economies. Consequently, there is a growing need for objective methodologies to evaluate the efficiency and validity of these public events projects. However, despite the increasing number of studies in this area, quantitative research regarding the analysis and prediction of the effectiveness of event-based projects remains scarce. In this study, we propose a methodology using the “Seoul Living Population Data” provided by the Seoul Metropolitan Government to quantitatively analyze and predict the effects of event-based projects. Specifically, by applying the TBATS model, which can consider various trends in time-series data (annual, weekly, daily, hourly), we aim to objectively analyze the effects of event-based projects and present a methodological procedure for quantifying the actual impact of these events. As a result, we confirm that this methodology enables the statistical analysis of the actual effects of event-based projects. Therefore, the proposed methodology in this study is expected to be utilized in assessing the demand for future event-based projects and is anticipated to provide more direct data compared to conventional qualitative assessments.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.