Toward the right treatment at the right time: Modeling the trajectory of cognitive decline to identify the earliest age of change in people with Alzheimer's disease

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Introduction: Age is the greatest risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). A limitation of randomized control trials in AD is a lack of specificity in the age ranges of participants who are enrolled in studies of disease-modifying therapies. We aimed to apply Emax (i.e., maximum effect) modeling as a novel approach to identity ideal treatment windows. Methods: Emax curves were fitted to longitudinal cognitive data of 101 participants with AD and 1392 healthy controls. We included the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and tests of verbal fluency and executive functioning. Results: In people with AD, the earliest decline in the MMSE could be detected in the 67-71 age band while verbal fluency declined from the 41-45 age band. In healthy controls, changes in cognition showed a later trajectory of decline. Discussion: Emax modeling could be used to design more efficient trials which has implications for randomized control trials targeting the earlier stages of AD.

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