Natural history and growth prediction model of pancreatic serous cystic neoplasms

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OBJECTIVE: Serous cystic neoplasms (SCN) are benign pancreatic cystic neoplasms that may require resection based on local complications and rate of growth. We aimed to develop a predictive model for the growth curve of SCNs to aid in the clinical decision making of determining need for surgical resection. METHODS: Utilizing a prospectively maintained pancreatic cyst database from a single institution, patients with SCNs were identified. Diagnosis confirmation included imaging, cyst aspiration, pathology, or expert opinion. Cyst size diameter was measured by radiology or surgery. Patients with interval imaging ≥3 months from diagnosis were included. Flexible restricted cubic splines were utilized for modeling of non-linearities in time and previous measurements. Model fitting and analysis were performed using R (V3.50, Vienna, Austria) with the rms package. RESULTS: Among 203 eligible patients from 1998 to 2021, the mean initial cyst size was 31 mm (range 5-160 mm), with a mean follow-up of 72 months (range 3-266 months). The model effectively captured the non-linear relationship between cyst size and time, with both time and previous cyst size (not initial cyst size) significantly predicting current cyst growth (p < 0.01). The root mean square error for overall prediction was 10.74. Validation through bootstrapping demonstrated consistent performance, particularly for shorter follow-up intervals. CONCLUSION: SCNs typically have a similar growth rate regardless of initial size. An accurate predictive model can be used to identify rapidly growing outliers that may warrant surgical intervention, and this free model (https://riskcalc.org/SerousCystadenomaSize/) can be incorporated in the electronic medical record.

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