Work ability trends 2000–2020 and birth-cohort projections until 2040 in Finland

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Aims: To examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000–2020 and make projections of perceived work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. Methods: Ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland between 2000 and 2020 were used (overall N = 61,087, range 817–18,956). Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person’s lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten (0–10) were classified into three groups: limited (0–5), intermediate (6–7), and good (8–10). Multiple imputation was used in projecting work ability. Results: Examining past trends by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined steadily over time among older birth-cohorts, while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was seen. Trends by 5-year age groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20–44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45–54-year-olds, and an improving trend among 55-year-olds and older was observed for the period 2000–2020. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55–59-year-olds, 58% among the 60–69-year-olds and 49% among the 70–74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggested a declining work ability in the future among all age groups included (30–74 years). By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline by 10 to 15 percentage points among 45–74-year-olds. Conclusions: The projections suggest declining work ability in the future. Efforts to counteract the decline in work ability are needed.

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