A nomogram based on quantitative EEG to predict the prognosis of nontraumatic coma patients in the neuro-intensive care unit

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OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish a quantitative electroencephalography-based prognostic prediction model specifically tailored for nontraumatic coma patients to guide clinical work. METHODS: This retrospective study included 126 patients with nontraumatic coma admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from December 2020 to December 2022. Six in-hospital deaths were excluded. The Glasgow Outcome Scale assessed the prognosis at 3 months after discharge. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and stepwise regression method were applied to select the most relevant predictors. We developed a predictive model using binary logistic regression and then presented it as a nomogram. We assessed the predictive effectiveness and clinical utility of the model. RESULTS: After excluding six deaths that occurred within the hospital, a total of 120 patients were included in this study. Three predictor variables were identified, including APACHE II score [39.129 (1.4244-1074.9000)], sleep cycle [OR: 0.006 (0.0002-0.1808)], and RAV [0.068 (0.0049-0.9500)]. The prognostic prediction model showed exceptional discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.939 (95 % CI: 0.899-0.979). CONCLUSION: A lack of sleep cycles, smaller relative alpha variants, and higher APACHE II scores were associated with a poor prognosis of nontraumatic coma patients in the neurointensive care unit at 3 months after discharge. CLINICAL IMPLICATION: This study presents a novel methodology for the prognostic assessment of nontraumatic coma patients and is anticipated to play a significant role in clinical practice.

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