Projections of mortality risk attributable to short-term exposure to landscape fire smoke in China, 2021–2100: a health impact assessment study
Rattachement africain : cn, hk. Niveau de preuve : code pays fourni par la source.
Le résumé fourni par la source
Background Landscape fire smoke, including smoke from all vegetation burning in natural and cultural landscapes, remains a threat to the health of the population. However, the future health impacts of landscape fire smoke in China have not been sufficiently investigated. We aimed to estimate the mortality risk attributable to landscape fire-related PM 2·5 under different scenarios. Methods In this health impact assessment study, we used the projected population and landscape fire-related PM 2·5 concentration to calculate deaths attributable to short-term exposure to landscape fire smoke PM 2·5 during 2021–2100. We did the analysis in three defined future periods: 2021–40 (near term), 2051–70 (medium term), and 2081–2100 (long term), with 1986–2005 as the historical period. We used fire-specific short-term epidemiological functions with the regional parameters specific to China. We assessed the mortality risks of landscape fire-related smoke and further identified their spatiotemporal distribution under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1–2·6, an optimistic scenario with strict control of carbon emissions, and SSP2–4·5, an intermediate scenario with weaker control of carbon emissions. Findings The national mortality rate attributable to short-term exposure (ie, a few days) to landscape fire-related PM 2·5 is projected to increase compared with historical values. The national deaths attributable to landscape fire smoke PM 2·5 could peak in 2021–40, with increases of 28·10% (95% CI 14·08–53·11) under the SSP1–2·6 scenario and 37·38% (14·08–53·11) under the SSP2–4·5 scenario. Deaths would then decrease slightly during 2051–70 and 2081–2100. The provinces with the highest projected number of deaths attributable to landscape fire-related PM 2·5 are located in east and south-central China, and those with the largest percentage increase in projected deaths are located in northwest and southwest China. Interpretation Our results suggest that global warming could increase the contribution of landscape fire smoke to the total PM 2·5 concentration, leading to an increase in the mortality rate in China. Our findings could help policy makers implement effective interventions in hotspot areas during different periods to reduce the impact of landscape fire smoke on human health. Funding The National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and the Wellcome Trust.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Projections of mortality risk attributable to short-term exposure to landscape fire smoke in China, 2021–2100: a health impact assessment study
- Date Crossref
- 01/10/2023
- Éditeur
- Elsevier BV
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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Tsinghua University Department of Earth System Science pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Chinese Academy of Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeOrganisme public
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Institute of Economics pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control pays non établi dans la noticeStructure de recherche
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Beijing Institute of Technology Management and Economics pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Aerospace Information Research Institute pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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University of Hong Kong Department of Earth Sciences and Geography pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Linkong Economics and Management pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Environment State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC) pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
Department of Earth System Science — Tsinghua University, Chinese Academy of Sciences et International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences — Institute of Atmospheric Physics, avec 7 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.