Potential biomarkers for fatal outcome prognosis in a cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with pre-existing co-morbidities

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Abstract Background The difficulty to predict fatal outcomes in COVID-19 patients, impacts in the general morbidity and mortality due to SARSCoV2 infection, as it wears out the hospital services that care for these patients. Unfortunately, in several of the candidates for prognostic biomarkers proposed, the predictive power is compromised when patients have pre-existing co-morbidities. Methods A cohort of one hundred and forty-seven patients hospitalized for severe COVID19 was included in a descriptive, observational, single-center, and prospective study. Patients were recruited during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave (April-Nov, 2020). Data were collected from the clinical history while immunophenotyping by multiparameter flow cytometry analysis allowed us to assess the expression of surface markers on peripheral leukocytes. Patients were grouped according to the outcome in survivor or decease. The prognostic value of leukocytes, cytokines or HLA-DR, CD39, and CD73 was calculated. Results Hypertension and chronic renal failure but not obesity and diabetes were conditions more frequent among the decease group. Mixed hypercitokinemia, including inflammatory (IL-6) and anti-inflammatory (IL-10) cytokines, was more evident in deceased patients. In the decease group, lymphopenia with a higher NLR value was present. HLA-DR expression and the percentage of CD39+ cells were higher than non COVID-19 patients, but remain similar despite outcome. ROC analysis and cut-off value of NLR (69.6%, 9.4), pNLR (71.1%, 13.6), IL-6 (79.7%, 135.2 pg/mL). Conclusion The expression of HLA-DR, CD39, and CD73, as many serum cytokines (other than IL-6) and chemokines levels do not show prognostic potential compared to NLR and pNLR values.

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