Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
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Le résumé fourni par la source
Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
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Le contrôle bibliographique ouvert
DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.
- Titre Crossref
- Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
- Date Crossref
- 06/03/2023
- Éditeur
- MDPI AG
- Type
- journal-article
Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude, et il ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.
Où se fait cette recherche
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University of Lisbon pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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Universidade do Porto Campus de Vairão pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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School of Agriculture Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
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BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics pays non établi dans la noticeInstitution
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Universidade de Lisboa Instituto Superior de Agronomia pays non établi dans la noticeUniversité ou école supérieure
University of Lisbon, Campus de Vairão — Universidade do Porto et Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA — School of Agriculture, avec 2 autres affiliations.
Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.