Biomarkers of Fibrosis in Patients with COVID-19 One Year After Hospital Discharge: A Prospective Cohort Study

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Abstract Beyond the acute infection of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), concern has arisen about long-term effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The aim of our study was to analyze if there is any biomarker of fibrogenesis in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia capable of predicting post-COVID-19 pulmonary sequelae. We conducted a multicenter, prospective, observational cohort study of patients admitted to a hospital with bilateral COVID-19 pneumonia. We classified patients into two groups according to severity, and blood sampling to measure matrix metalloproteinase 1 (MMP-1), MMP-7, periostin, and VEGF and respiratory function tests and high-resolution computed tomography were performed at 2 and 12 months after hospital discharge. A total of 135 patients were evaluated at 12 months. Their median age was 61 (interquartile range, 19) years, and 58.5% were men. We found between-group differences in age, radiological involvement, length of hospital stay, and inflammatory laboratory parameters. Differences were found between 2 and 12 months in all functional tests, including improvements in predicted forced vital capacity (98.0% vs. 103.9%; P = 0.001) and Dl CO <80% (60.9% vs. 39.7%; P = 0.001). At 12 months, 63% of patients had complete high-resolution computed tomography resolution, but fibrotic changes persisted in 29.4%. Biomarker analysis demonstrated differences at 2 months in periostin (0.8893 vs. 1.437 ng/ml; P < 0.001) and MMP-7 (8.7249 vs. 15.2181 ng/ml; P < 0.001). No differences were found at 12 months. In multivariable analysis, only 2-month periostin was associated with 12-month fibrotic changes (odds ratio, 1.0013; 95% confidence interval, 1.0006–1.00231; P = 0.003) and 12-month Dl CO impairment (odds ratio, 1.0006; 95% confidence interval, 1.0000–1.0013; P = 0.047). Our data suggest that early periostin postdischarge could predict the presence of fibrotic pulmonary changes.

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