The Effect of State Mandate Timing on COVID-19 Incidence Rates

Le résumé fourni par la source

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global medical system and in the absence of efficacious pharmaceutical interventions, nations, including the United States, have turned to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as public masking and regulation of non-essential public spaces. The application of these NPIs have varied between countries in terms of timing and stringency.1 In the United States, the power to influence these interventions has been left in the hands of individual states. As a result, state officials have been placed under great scrutiny regarding public health mandates with the potential to dramatically change daily case rates. Some states have favored a passive public health approach, meaning slower implementation of NPIs in the form of later masking mandates and earlier openings of public venues. Alternatively, some states have favored an active public health approach, meaning earlier implementation of NPIs in the form of earlier mask mandates and later openings of public venues. The difference in approach between these groups of states has fueled debate on what is the most effective public health strategy.2 Current literature on the topic of COVID-19 based state mandates have focused on individual public health mandates specifically public masking mandates. Mathematical modeling has highlighted that timely and comprehensive NPIs such as public masking are needed to reduce the virus transmission rate to prevent a secondary wave.3 Furthermore, exploration of changes in the daily county-level COVID-19 growth rates during a two-month period from March to May 2020 revealed that mandating face mask use in public is associated with a decline in the daily COVID-19 growth rate.4 Although studies have been conducted on the efficacy of solitary public health mandates, minimal research exists exploring the potential interplay of these mandates when it comes to reopening of public spaces.4 In this study, we explore the effect of timing of government mandates on COVID-19 incidence rates, specifically highlighting two of the more controversial state mandates: mandatory mask usage and bar openings. Our exploration is centered on two states with active public health approaches — New York and New Jersey — and two states with passive public health approaches — Florida and Texas.2 Our intention through this study is to demonstrate the efficacy in sequential active public health planning in response to a pandemic.

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.