Modelling polycystic liver disease progression using age-adjusted liver volumes and targeted mutational analysis

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Background & Aims: Polycystic liver disease (PLD) manifests as numerous fluid-filled cysts scattered throughout the liver parenchyma. PLD most commonly develops in females, either as an extra-renal manifestation of autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) or as isolated autosomal-dominant polycystic liver disease (ADPLD). Despite known genetic causes, clinical variability challenges patient counselling and timely risk prediction is hampered by a lack of genotype-phenotype correlations and prognostic imaging classifications. Methods: We performed targeted next-generation sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification to identify the underlying genetic defect in a cohort of 80 deeply characterized patients with PLD. Identified genotypes were correlated with total liver and kidney volume (assessed by CT or MRI), organ function, co-morbidities, and clinical endpoints. Results: Disease severity defined by age at waitlisting for liver transplantation and first PLD-related hospitalization was significantly more pronounced in mutation carriers compared to patients without genetic diagnoses. While current imaging classifications proved unable to differentiate between severe and moderate courses, grouping by estimated age-adjusted total liver volume progression yielded significant risk discrimination. Conclusion: This study underlines the predictive value of providing a molecular diagnosis for patients with PLD. In addition, we propose a novel risk-classification model based on age- and height-adjusted total liver volume that could improve individual prognostication and personalized clinical management. Lay summary: Polycystic liver disease (PLD) is a highly variable condition that can be asymptomatic or severe. However, it is currently difficult to predict clinical outcomes such as hospitalization, symptom burden, and need for transplantation in individual patients. In the current study, we aimed to investigate the clinical value of genetic confirmation and an age-adjusted total liver volume classification for individual disease prediction. While genetic confirmation generally pointed to more severe disease, estimated age-adjusted increases in liver volume could be useful for predicting clinical outcomes.

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