Deforestation, plantation-related land cover dynamics and oil palm age-structure change during 1990–2020 in Riau Province, Indonesia

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Abstract The expansion of plantations, such as oil palm, in Indonesia has caused large-scale deforestation. Loss of tropical forest, in particular peatland forest, is a major ecological and environmental threat as well as a source of atmospheric carbon emissions. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of plantation expansion may illuminate pathways to reduce deforestation while maintaining high yields in existing plantations. Beyond mapping forest conversion to plantations, it is also important to understand post-conversion plantation success and crop age. In the case of oil palm, the typical productive lifespan is 25–30 years before replanting or conversion to other land use becomes necessary. Knowledge about the extent of oil palm in different productive growth stages is important for yield estimation and improving management strategies. This study characterizes the land-cover and land-use changes inherent to oil palm plantation expansion and age-structured oil palm dynamics across Riau, the province with the greatest production of oil palm in Indonesia, using a 30 year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery. From 1990 to 2020, Riau lost 4.63 M ha of forest, while oil palm extent grew six-fold, reaching an estimated 3.52 M ha in 2020. Rapid expansion of oil palm plantations in Riau resulted in the predominance of younger age classes (<10 yr-old) and rapidly increasing yields during 2010–2020. Conversion dynamics changed over time such that, after 2014, the <10 yr age class declined by 14%, whereas the 10–20 yr-old (peak yield stage) and ⩾20 yr-old (decline stage) age classes increased by 11% and 3%, respectively. In 28 years of observation (1992–2020), 41% of oil palm planted between 1990 and 1992 underwent at least one cycle of replanting in Riau.

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