Aller au contenu principal
Accès ouvert déclaré 2022 article

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

37Citations signalées — pas une note de qualité
11Institutions déclarées
3Pays d’affiliation déclarés

Résumé fourni par la source

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583).

Ce résumé expose les affirmations des auteurs. BNTIC ne l’interprète pas comme une validation indépendante des résultats.

Contrôle bibliographique ouvert

DOI retrouvé dans Crossref DOI retrouvé ; titre concordant.

Titre Crossref
Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people
Date Crossref
14/04/2022
Éditeur
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Type
journal-article

Ce recoupement confirme des métadonnées liées au DOI. Il ne confirme ni la méthode ni les conclusions de l’étude et ne compte pas comme une seconde source scientifique indépendante.

Institutions déclarées

Une affiliation ne permet pas de déduire la nationalité d’un auteur.

Sujets associés

Frailty in Older AdultsHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of LifeChronic Disease Management Strategies

BNTIC News n’est pas le producteur de ces données. Recherche à la demande dans Crossref, OpenAIRE, DOAJ, Europe PMC, HAL, DataCite, ROR et la Banque mondiale, sans clé ; OpenAlex reste optionnel. Aucun service payant requis, aucune donnée externe enregistrée en base. Sources et limites.