Evolutionary process modeling with Bayesian inference of Spodoptera frugiperda ballooning and walking dispersal in Bt and non‐Bt cotton plant mixtures

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Abstract Transgenic crops expressing Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt) have been cultivated throughout the world as a great technological tool for developing integrated pest management. We hypothesized that artificial landscapes containing Bt and non‐Bt cotton plants (Gossypium hirsutum L., Malvaceae) at small scales could influence dispersal by ballooning of Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). We also simulated how ballooning dispersal combined with walking movement could impact resistance evolution in various scenarios of plant mixtures involving non‐Bt and Bt cotton plants with high‐dose and low‐dose events. The ballooning frequency of Cry1F‐resistant larvae in a treatment with non‐Bt cotton as a natal plant and Bt cotton in adjacent sites was two‐fold lower compared to when Bt cotton was the natal plant and non‐Bt cotton was in the adjacent sites. Our model results suggested that the higher rate of walking movement associated with ballooning promoted faster resistance evolution in low‐dose events, and contamination of Bt cotton fields with non‐Bt cotton plants in a high‐dose event showed the longest time to resistance. Therefore, a high rate of walking movement associated with ballooning negatively impacted the time for resistance to evolve in low‐dose events.

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