A Global Analysis of Interannual Variability in Potential and Actual Tropical Cyclone Intensities

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Abstract We examine the relationship between interannual variability of potential intensity (PI) and tropical cyclone (TC) actual intensity (AI) and the factors contributing to this variability across all global ocean basins. Using best‐track data and three reanalysis products from 1980–2016, we find that the Western North Pacific is the only basin that yields consistently significant correlations between AI and PI sampled along the TC tracks. In contrast to a previous study, the North Atlantic does not yield statistically significant correlations. This is because the correlation between AI and PI in the North Atlantic is sensitive to the length of the time period considered and the individual years within that time period. Both thermodynamic efficiency and air‐sea disequilibrium contribute to interannual variability in along‐track PI.

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