Effects of Load History on Seepage-Induced Deformation and Associated Performance in Terms of Probability of Exceeding Limit States—Case Study of Princeville Levee

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This paper presents the use of strain-based analysis of Princeville levee to assess the probability of exceeding performance limit states due to the effect of repeated rise and fall of water levels, representing severe storm cycles. To this end, the Princeville levee is selected as a case study and the strain-based analyses are conducted using the finite element program Plaxis 2D. The strain-based approach considers the uncertainty of the permeability of foundation layer and treat them as random variables. Results show a progressive development of plastic shear strain within the levee as the number of storm cycles is increased. The accumulation of such shear strain leads to increasing the probability of exceeding a given performance limit state, and therefore reflect the increasing level of failure risk. In parallel, the stability factor of safety obtained from limit equilibrium approach remains unchanged while it changed slightly for strength reduction method with increased number of water level rise and fall cycles. The conventional slope stability factor of safety approaches, therefore, do not reflect the potential probability of failure sufficiently with repeated loading which negates the ability use it to perform design on the basis of meeting a risk criterion.

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