Modelling the effects of temperature change on the dynamics of tsetse flies and trypanosomiasis disease transmission

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ENGLISH ABSTRACT : Global temperatures have increased over recent decades. This is expected to have an impact on vector-borne diseases, raising questions such as: Will the increased temperature result in changing disease prevalence? How will vector populations be affected in terms of their density and distribution? It has been suggested that African trypanosomiasis, a zoonotic disease transmitted by tsetse flies, will exhibit increased incidence, and expand its geographical range, due to increasing temperatures. This project uses mathematical modelling to assess the impact of temperature change on tsetse fly population dynamics. Understanding these impacts could help us understand how trypanosomiasis transmission dynamics will be affected by global warming. We develop a temperaturedependent ordinary differential equations (ODE) model to model the growth in the numbers of pupal and adult tsetse. We fit the model to data on the number of tsetse flies (Glossina pallidipes Austen) on Antelope Island, Zimbabwe, between 5 February 1980 and 29 December 1981, estimated using mark recapture. The findings from this project concur with previous studies suggesting that temperature is the most important factor determining the growth of tsetse populations. There appears, however, to be another factor, cycling annually, approximately in phase with the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which also influences the survival of adult flies. Our findings show that minor changes in temperature have a big impact on tsetse population growth rates. In conclusion, our model suggests that high temperatures could give rise, at least, to local extinctions of tsetse populations.

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