Revisiting the Bow-Tie Risk Assessment Method: How Implementing an Unconventional Real-Time Center Outside North America Redefined Workflow Design

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Abstract Real-time centers first appeared in the 1980s, became increasingly accepted in the 1990s, and are currently commonplace. They are an indispensable tool for complex operations and help avoid unplanned and sometimes potentially catastrophic events. These centers are commonly used offshore, particularly for deepwater operations, with a wide range of workflows specifically designed to help reduce the risk of undesirable events. The bow-tie risk assessment method is a risk mitigation function that is widely used in workflow design. It enables the design of workflows based on the number of options or solutions available to avoid or mitigate an undesirable event. In unconventional and other operations, these events can be difficult to identify because their consequences can be less obvious, particularly in more streamlined, standardized operations. This paper demonstrates the use of the bow-tie risk assessment method to create workflows specifically designed for these situations. In this workflow method, the event in question is placed in the center of a bow-tie shape, with two wings growing in size to the left and right. The left side represents options to avoid the event; the right shows mitigation opportunities. This approach is well-suited to operations with many unexpected events having unique, non-standard situations. Because the resulting workflows provide solutions for before, during, and after the event has occurred, scenarios are presented to avoid the event, address it if it occurs, and mitigate it after it has passed. A new way of using this method developed from the implementation of real-time centers in unconventional assets located outside of North America, in which operations are used with many repetitive and standardized procedures. In these operations, unexpected events are less common, and the need exists to further improve efficiencies and operational delivery. This paper demonstrates how workflows can be designed using the bow-tie methodology and rethinking the event concept. By defining the center of the bow tie, workflows can be designed to have a measurable effect on the overall operation rather than only in a specific situation. This rethinking is possible because the applicable real-time centers are being implemented at the same time that new unconventional assets are being developed. It is relatively uncommon in North America to deploy real-time centers after assets have standardized processes or have been in operation for a period of time. In other areas, however, real-time centers are implemented while the asset is going through trial and error, providing a unique opportunity for the workflow design process to mature with the rest of the operation.

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