Incidence of rectosigmoid adenomatous polyps in subjects without prior colorectal adenoma or cancer: a prospective cohort study

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BACKGROUND: Subjects without known colorectal adenomas or cancer constitute a large majority of the population where 85% of all cases of colorectal cancer are thought to occur. Consequently these people should be considered for screening to decrease mortality from colorectal cancer in the general population. AIMS: To estimate the incidence rate of rectosigmoid adenomas in these subjects. METHODS: Subjects without adenomas or cancer at a previous examination which had visualised the rectosigmoid underwent a fibre endoscopy every three years. Endoscopic data and population characteristics were collected prospectively. RESULTS: A total of 450 subjects fulfilled the selection criteria; 287 (64%) underwent at least two examinations, and 163 had three or more. At the second examination, with a mean delay of 39 months, the incidence rate of rectosigmoïd adenomas was 1.50% per patient year. The rate was 1.75% per patient year (95% CI 0.80-3.33) at the third endoscopy with an additional mean delay of 38 months. The cumulative incidence rate at six years was 7.3% (95% CI 4.3-10.3), representing a mean of 1.2% per patient year. This rate increased with age and was higher for men than for women after age adjustment (p< 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rates are very low compared with those of patients with prior adenomas. These results should be considered in establishing rectosigmoid adenoma screening strategies.

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