Probabilistic Storylines: Characterizing the Likelihood of Impactful Events in an Uncertain World
Andrew D. Jones, Julia M. Longmate, Smitha Buddhavarapu, William Gutowski et autres
Abstract Storylines are a useful approach for understanding and preparing for impactful events. For instance, resource managers often use “design droughts” or “floods of record” to stress-test system vulnerabilities and consider alternative responses. While plausible storylines are sufficient for many applications, there …
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